Is a Coronavirus Vaccine Necessary?
Less than a week ago, the New York Times released an article citing scientific research demonstrating that natural immunity to the coronavirus may last decades (1). In July, an article in the Boston Globe cited the CDC and JAMA of Internal Medicine. They estimated the COVID cases are 6 - 24 times higher than the confirmed cases (2). Recently, the CDC estimated that 40% of people with COVID are asymptotic (3). On October, 13th it was reported by Forbes that only one individual has died of being reinfected with COVID. The individual was an 89 year old immunocompromised female from Holland (4). In July, WebMD released data that demonstrated herd immunity might be achieved when only 43% of a population becomes immune to the coronavirus (5).
What are we learning from this data? Natural Immunity from COVID can last decades. Reinfection deaths from COVID are extremely rare. Estimated cases of COVID are exceedingly higher than confirmed cases. There are millions of Americans who had COVID and were unaware. Herd immunity can be achieved with less than 50% of the population.
With this data one must ask: Is a COVD vaccine necessary? Experts estimate the actual COVID numbers are 10 to 20 times higher than reported cases. If we assume the estimated cases are 15 times higher then we will soon reach heard immunity. Along with herd immunity the data demonstrates reinfection deaths are extremely rare and natural immunity will last decades.
A recent article by CNN news is warning that the federal government is rushing out a coronavirus vaccine before testing has shown it's both safe and effective. The article then reviews the vaccine history and negative side effects that occur when a vaccine is rushed to the market (6).
As health care professionals it is our responsibility to critically assess the science, question the assumptions and base public safety on all the scientific data available.
(1).https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/health/coronavirus-immunity.html
(2). https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cdc-study-actual-covid-19-cases/
(3). https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-estimate-40-percent-infected-with-covid-19-asymptomatic-2020-7
(4).https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/10/13/first-covid-19-reinfection-death-recorded-in-netherlands/?sh=7cde6fec7d25
(5).https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200626/herd-immunity-threshold-could-be-as-low-as-43-percent
(6). https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/health/eua-coronavirus-vaccine-history/index.html